EV Bet Calculator
Some people will swear by using an EV bet in sports betting, but what does this mean? EV stands for expected value, and it’s a way of calculating what the value of a bet will be over the long term.
To work it out, the sum of all the possible outcomes is multiplied by the likelihood of it taking place. In other words, the EV refers to what a bettor can expect to win or lose for a bet placed with the same odds over time. If there is a positive expected value, or +EV, this states that profit will be made over time, while negative expected value, or -EV, refers to a loss being made over time. It is recommended for bettors to work out what the betting value of every bet they make is.
The calculation for an expected value involves multiplying the amount won per bet by the probability of winning, then subtracting it by the figure which results from the amount lost per bet multiplied by the probability of losing.
Even if there is a negative EV, this doesn’t necessarily mean you will lose money. This is because, unlike situations such as a coin toss, betting odds are subjective, which means that if you can accurately predict an outcome compared to either the bookmaker or another user on the exchange, you will most likely make a profit. The best place to find value is niche markets, where bettors can specialise and will usually find that the playing field between bookmakers and bettors is levelled out. Once a punter understands the market well enough, they will be able to identify odds which are suddenly going in the other direction to the implied probability, which will give them a positive EV over time.
Another method of finding a positive expected value is by using an arbitrage strategy, which exploits odds from bookmakers and exchanges, forming a positive EV as a result. The arbitrage technique is a trading method which takes advantage of price differences between and within markets, thus guaranteeing a profit. When used within the context of sports betting, this involves bettors placing bets on all of the outcomes for an event at odds which will guarantee a profit, whatever the result may be in the end. Instead of gambling, which is higher risk, sports arbitrage betting involves low-risk and medium-yield investment.
It’s important to bear in mind that, with sports betting, calculating expected value before the start of a game isn’t possible. This is because the true probabilities of outcomes aren’t known until the game or match is over. Therefore, speculating on the expected value of a sports wager could only be an estimate before this point. Another way of thinking of an EV bet is by describing it as Profit Expectation instead.
Using an EV bet calculator can help you to work out your bet expectation. This tool will help you to judge the value of any bet by taking a single bet and its probability of success, then calculating the likelihood of this bet providing you either a profit or a loss after being repeated over 100 times.
The higher the profit, the larger the value of the bet. To get started, enter the odds of your chosen bet. Simply enter the odds of the market you are thinking about backing. Then, carry out some research into your sporting event to find out what a realistic probability figure is for your chosen bet, and enter this into the calculator. You will then find out the expected value of your bet.
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